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AlNash says
Yes, the crop is damaged because of drought, and they recently restricted export of cereals. But on the other hand, they reconfirmed all export contracts that are already signed, and they had a good crops last year and the year before, and the storages there are full, and the autumn is near, and "buy on rumours sell on facts" is not a bad rule at all. Personally, I expect wheat to go down soon and think about going short at the end of August. (it is not an investment advice, or a guarantee, or analytic report, or anything of that kind!!!)
exactduke says
This info is already widely known, and priced into the market. You should also check and see if there are problems in the us. North Dakota, S Dakota, Kansas, also grow huge amounts of wheat. Canada's western provinces also grow lots of wheat. Do we have huge surpluses here in north american to take up the slack?? Do you homework on these other wheat growing areas & world supplies.